| 圖表：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣指數(shù)(2007年3月) |
| 中國發(fā)展門戶網(wǎng) www.chinagate.com.cn 2007 年 04 月 29 日 |
|
|
|
日期
|
預(yù)警指數(shù)
|
一致指數(shù)
(1996年＝100)
|
先行指數(shù)
(1996年＝100)
|
滯后指數(shù)
(1996年＝100)
|
|
1991.01
|
88.0
|
99.64
|
102.07
|
103.85
|
|
1991.02
|
90.7
|
99.33
|
102.27
|
103.64
|
|
1991.03
|
84.0
|
99.64
|
102.81
|
103.17
|
|
1991.04
|
86.0
|
99.99
|
103.50
|
103.67
|
|
1991.05
|
89.3
|
101.01
|
103.89
|
104.45
|
|
1991.06
|
96.7
|
101.39
|
104.36
|
105.75
|
|
1991.07
|
100.7
|
101.70
|
104.42
|
105.95
|
|
1991.08
|
100.7
|
101.79
|
104.86
|
105.02
|
|
1991.09
|
100.7
|
101.85
|
105.61
|
104.48
|
|
1991.10
|
103.3
|
102.12
|
106.40
|
103.64
|
|
1991.11
|
106.7
|
102.14
|
106.72
|
103.32
|
|
1991.12
|
106.7
|
102.12
|
106.61
|
103.25
|
|
1992.01
|
113.3
|
103.45
|
106.89
|
104.15
|
|
1992.02
|
113.3
|
104.57
|
107.54
|
104.96
|
|
1992.03
|
116.0
|
104.86
|
108.39
|
105.28
|
|
1992.04
|
122.7
|
103.95
|
109.32
|
104.31
|
|
1992.05
|
120.7
|
102.77
|
110.10
|
103.64
|
|
1992.06
|
122.0
|
103.53
|
111.28
|
102.66
|
|
1992.07
|
115.3
|
104.14
|
112.11
|
102.51
|
|
1992.08
|
118.7
|
105.23
|
112.25
|
102.91
|
|
1992.09
|
121.3
|
105.41
|
110.89
|
102.59
|
|
1992.10
|
121.3
|
105.91
|
109.34
|
102.73
|
|
1992.11
|
132.0
|
106.62
|
108.50
|
102.58
|
|
1992.12
|
135.3
|
107.29
|
107.28
|
103.77
|
|
1993.01
|
139.3
|
109.72
|
107.41
|
104.99
|
|
1993.02
|
139.3
|
111.54
|
107.70
|
105.63
|
|
1993.03
|
142.0
|
113.61
|
108.30
|
105.14
|
|
1993.04
|
148.7
|
113.82
|
107.39
|
105.26
|
|
1993.05
|
148.7
|
114.09
|
106.08
|
105.76
|
|
1993.06
|
148.7
|
113.01
|
103.79
|
106.72
|
|
1993.07
|
142.7
|
111.12
|
102.18
|
106.87
|
|
1993.08
|
142.7
|
109.15
|
100.75
|
107.19
|
|
1993.09
|
132.0
|
107.79
|
101.13
|
107.93
|
|
1993.10
|
132.0
|
107.17
|
101.22
|
108.91
|
|
1993.11
|
135.3
|
108.07
|
103.50
|
109.94
|
|
1993.12
|
134.0
|
108.44
|
103.32
|
111.47
|
|
1994.01
|
130.7
|
106.48
|
101.79
|
113.58
|
|
1994.02
|
124.0
|
104.22
|
98.39
|
114.34
|
|
1994.03
|
117.3
|
103.49
|
97.24
|
113.68
|
|
1994.04
|
119.3
|
104.93
|
97.41
|
111.70
|
|
1994.05
|
119.3
|
105.76
|
97.35
|
110.96
|
|
1994.06
|
128.7
|
107.07
|
98.90
|
110.42
|
|
1994.07
|
132.7
|
108.70
|
99.82
|
110.73
|
|
1994.08
|
136.7
|
109.60
|
101.41
|
110.89
|
|
1994.09
|
139.3
|
109.51
|
100.93
|
111.14
|
|
1994.10
|
138.7
|
109.12
|
101.21
|
110.84
|
|
1994.11
|
138.7
|
108.78
|
99.48
|
110.05
|
|
1994.12
|
136.0
|
107.65
|
100.07
|
108.01
|
|
1995.01
|
132.0
|
106.49
|
100.81
|
104.95
|
|
1995.02
|
131.3
|
105.22
|
102.63
|
102.36
|
|
1995.03
|
124.0
|
104.06
|
102.67
|
101.29
|
|
1995.04
|
123.3
|
102.89
|
102.31
|
101.31
|
|
1995.05
|
126.0
|
102.33
|
102.09
|
100.82
|
|
1995.06
|
120.7
|
101.22
|
100.90
|
99.68
|
|
1995.07
|
109.3
|
100.44
|
100.52
|
97.98
|
|
1995.08
|
107.3
|
99.80
|
99.60
|
96.32
|
|
1995.09
|
111.3
|
100.17
|
99.94
|
94.91
|
|
1995.10
|
114.0
|
99.42
|
99.36
|
93.83
|
|
1995.11
|
114.0
|
99.58
|
99.90
|
93.71
|
|
1995.12
|
114.0
|
100.02
|
99.65
|
94.71
|
|
1996.01
|
111.3
|
101.54
|
99.39
|
96.35
|
|
1996.02
|
106.0
|
100.61
|
98.81
|
98.01
|
|
1996.03
|
106.0
|
100.24
|
98.66
|
99.10
|
|
1996.04
|
104.0
|
99.35
|
99.23
|
99.62
|
|
1996.05
|
106.7
|
99.38
|
99.98
|
99.98
|
|
1996.06
|
106.7
|
99.36
|
99.72
|
100.34
|
|
1996.07
|
105.3
|
99.38
|
99.80
|
100.99
|
|
1996.08
|
97.3
|
99.57
|
99.73
|
101.41
|
|
1996.09
|
93.3
|
99.65
|
100.82
|
101.55
|
|
1996.10
|
93.3
|
100.05
|
101.23
|
101.32
|
|
1996.11
|
92.0
|
100.44
|
101.48
|
100.61
|
|
1996.12
|
92.0
|
99.68
|
101.50
|
100.14
|
|
1997.01
|
94.7
|
98.56
|
101.54
|
99.20
|
|
1997.02
|
97.3
|
98.36
|
101.00
|
98.54
|
|
1997.03
|
100.0
|
98.35
|
100.93
|
98.33
|
|
1997.04
|
100.0
|
98.58
|
100.21
|
98.66
|
|
1997.05
|
99.3
|
98.05
|
99.87
|
99.35
|
|
1997.06
|
100.7
|
97.56
|
100.51
|
99.29
|
|
1997.07
|
94.0
|
97.03
|
100.47
|
99.07
|
|
1997.08
|
92.0
|
96.65
|
100.75
|
98.77
|
|
1997.09
|
96.0
|
96.63
|
99.77
|
98.62
|
|
1997.10
|
89.3
|
96.53
|
99.65
|
98.71
|
|
1997.11
|
88.0
|
95.82
|
99.44
|
98.49
|
|
1997.12
|
82.0
|
94.94
|
99.18
|
97.36
|
|
1998.01
|
74.0
|
94.10
|
99.33
|
96.58
|
|
1998.02
|
70.0
|
94.83
|
99.29
|
96.30
|
|
1998.03
|
62.0
|
94.92
|
99.17
|
95.83
|
|
1998.04
|
64.7
|
94.90
|
98.76
|
95.04
|
|
1998.05
|
58.7
|
94.12
|
98.14
|
93.68
|
|
1998.06
|
60.7
|
94.13
|
97.70
|
93.39
|
|
1998.07
|
60.7
|
94.63
|
96.99
|
93.23
|
|
1998.08
|
63.3
|
94.90
|
97.17
|
93.36
|
|
1998.09
|
63.3
|
94.98
|
97.77
|
93.40
|
|
1998.10
|
66.0
|
95.23
|
98.94
|
93.26
|
|
1998.11
|
70.0
|
95.13
|
98.84
|
93.14
|
|
1998.12
|
66.7
|
94.82
|
99.31
|
94.91
|
|
1999.01
|
62.7
|
94.15
|
99.27
|
95.27
|
|
1999.02
|
62.7
|
92.87
|
100.43
|
95.25
|
|
1999.03
|
60.0
|
92.68
|
100.29
|
93.49
|
|
1999.04
|
59.3
|
92.64
|
101.00
|
93.21
|
|
1999.05
|
59.3
|
93.45
|
101.42
|
93.27
|
|
1999.06
|
62.7
|
93.39
|
101.31
|
93.41
|
|
1999.07
|
62.7
|
93.08
|
101.46
|
93.37
|
|
1999.08
|
62.0
|
93.21
|
100.55
|
93.64
|
|
1999.09
|
70.0
|
93.42
|
99.88
|
93.60
|
|
1999.10
|
70.7
|
94.08
|
99.13
|
93.58
|
|
1999.11
|
77.3
|
94.35
|
99.92
|
93.04
|
|
1999.12
|
77.3
|
96.12
|
100.72
|
91.32
|
|
2000.01
|
75.3
|
96.55
|
101.25
|
91.32
|
|
2000.02
|
79.3
|
97.58
|
101.01
|
91.35
|
|
2000.03
|
83.3
|
96.96
|
101.06
|
92.87
|
|
2000.04
|
87.3
|
97.31
|
100.46
|
92.58
|
|
2000.05
|
87.3
|
97.03
|
100.09
|
92.34
|
|
2000.06
|
93.3
|
97.39
|
100.21
|
91.65
|
|
2000.07
|
90.7
|
97.94
|
100.25
|
91.50
|
|
2000.08
|
93.3
|
97.73
|
100.39
|
91.01
|
|
2000.09
|
93.3
|
97.39
|
99.92
|
90.91
|
|
2000.10
|
90.7
|
96.30
|
99.64
|
91.35
|
|
2000.11
|
86.7
|
95.96
|
98.92
|
92.48
|
|
2000.12
|
83.3
|
95.19
|
98.58
|
92.72
|
|
2001.01
|
91.3
|
96.45
|
98.64
|
92.43
|
|
2001.02
|
91.3
|
96.88
|
99.13
|
91.67
|
|
2001.03
|
91.3
|
97.54
|
99.64
|
91.71
|
|
2001.04
|
88.7
|
96.68
|
99.76
|
91.72
|
|
2001.05
|
85.3
|
96.34
|
99.72
|
92.28
|
|
2001.06
|
88.0
|
95.85
|
99.75
|
93.02
|
|
2001.07
|
83.3
|
95.31
|
100.12
|
93.19
|
|
2001.08
|
83.3
|
95.18
|
100.40
|
92.95
|
|
2001.09
|
76.7
|
95.04
|
100.35
|
92.49
|
|
2001.10
|
73.3
|
95.08
|
100.20
|
91.75
|
|
2001.11
|
76.0
|
95.02
|
100.37
|
91.43
|
|
2001.12
|
73.3
|
95.30
|
100.75
|
90.97
|
|
2002.01
|
76.7
|
95.00
|
100.77
|
90.90
|
|
2002.02
|
76.7
|
95.07
|
100.80
|
91.02
|
|
2002.03
|
76.7
|
95.49
|
100.71
|
91.06
|
|
2002.04
|
82.7
|
96.58
|
100.76
|
91.25
|
|
2002.05
|
85.3
|
97.02
|
100.86
|
91.22
|
|
2002.06
|
85.3
|
97.23
|
101.07
|
91.36
|
|
2002.07
|
89.3
|
97.16
|
101.25
|
91.68
|
|
2002.08
|
94.7
|
97.91
|
101.57
|
92.14
|
|
2002.09
|
94.7
|
98.34
|
101.70
|
92.66
|
|
2002.10
|
94.7
|
98.91
|
102.00
|
93.08
|
|
2002.11
|
100.7
|
98.45
|
101.41
|
93.33
|
|
2002.12
|
100.7
|
99.10
|
101.62
|
94.39
|
|
2003.01
|
107.3
|
100.02
|
101.91
|
95.06
|
|
2003.02
|
107.3
|
100.92
|
102.23
|
95.95
|
|
2003.03
|
104.7
|
100.22
|
101.41
|
96.35
|
|
2003.04
|
101.3
|
99.11
|
100.62
|
97.24
|
|
2003.05
|
97.3
|
99.07
|
100.76
|
97.52
|
|
2003.06
|
101.3
|
99.46
|
101.38
|
97.54
|
|
2003.07
|
109.3
|
99.94
|
102.17
|
97.47
|
|
2003.08
|
109.3
|
99.93
|
102.17
|
97.61
|
|
2003.09
|
109.3
|
99.91
|
102.51
|
97.97
|
|
2003.10
|
112.0
|
99.99
|
102.52
|
98.41
|
|
2003.11
|
112.0
|
100.39
|
102.68
|
98.67
|
|
2003.12
|
112.7
|
101.01
|
102.79
|
98.63
|
|
2004.01
|
112.7
|
101.86
|
102.51
|
98.57
|
|
2004.02
|
118.7
|
102.33
|
102.63
|
98.71
|
|
2004.03
|
125.3
|
102.62
|
102.49
|
99.13
|
|
2004.04
|
114.7
|
102.49
|
102.46
|
99.42
|
|
2004.05
|
112.0
|
102.19
|
101.80
|
99.44
|
|
2004.06
|
112.0
|
101.85
|
101.25
|
99.28
|
|
2004.07
|
105.3
|
101.51
|
101.01
|
99.09
|
|
2004.08
|
97.3
|
101.20
|
101.05
|
99.11
|
|
2004.09
|
97.3
|
101.10
|
100.87
|
98.75
|
|
2004.10
|
97.3
|
101.09
|
100.90
|
98.06
|
|
2004.11
|
97.3
|
101.15
|
100.80
|
97.22
|
|
2004.12
|
100.0
|
100.53
|
101.10
|
96.41
|
|
2005.01
|
100.0
|
100.04
|
101.31
|
96.46
|
|
2005.02
|
100.0
|
99.69
|
101.58
|
96.17
|
|
2005.03
|
97.3
|
99.92
|
101.91
|
95.68
|
|
2005.04
|
97.3
|
100.14
|
102.32
|
94.47
|
|
2005.05
|
97.3
|
100.48
|
102.68
|
93.59
|
|
2005.06
|
104.0
|
100.62
|
102.68
|
93.21
|
|
2005.07
|
104.0
|
100.85
|
102.56
|
93.01
|
|
2005.08
|
102.7
|
100.85
|
102.49
|
92.86
|
|
2005.09
|
102.7
|
100.99
|
102.39
|
92.95
|
|
2005.10
|
102.7
|
100.92
|
102.08
|
93.42
|
|
2005.11
|
106.7
|
100.84
|
102.14
|
94.00
|
|
2005.12
|
104.0
|
101.03
|
102.30
|
94.91
|
|
2006.01
|
101.3
|
100.82
|
102.74
|
94.51
|
|
2006.02
|
101.3
|
100.93
|
102.95
|
94.52
|
|
2006.03
|
104.7
|
100.81
|
102.90
|
94.16
|
|
2006.04
|
104.7
|
101.35
|
102.61
|
94.84
|
|
2006.05
|
107.3
|
101.55
|
102.38
|
95.69
|
|
2006.06
|
106.7
|
101.63
|
102.10
|
96.34
|
|
2006.07
|
106.7
|
101.37
|
101.96
|
97.10
|
|
2006.08
|
105.3
|
101.16
|
102.04
|
97.54
|
|
2006.09
|
102.7
|
100.92
|
102.32
|
97.92
|
|
2006.10
|
100.0
|
100.93
|
102.53
|
98.29
|
|
2006.11
|
104.0
|
100.68
|
102.55
|
98.49
|
|
2006.12
|
101.3
|
101.28
|
103.04
|
98.09
|
|
2007.01
|
101.3
|
101.65
|
102.99
|
98.77
|
|
2007.02
|
104.0
|
102.03
|
102.80
|
99.05
|
|
2007.03
|
104.0
|
101.67
|
102.20
|
99.98
|
指標(biāo)解釋：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣指數(shù)：一致指數(shù)是反映當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)的基本走勢，由工業(yè)生產(chǎn)、就業(yè)、社會需求（投資、消費、外貿(mào)）、社會收入（國家稅收、企業(yè)利潤、居民收入）等4個方面合成；先行指數(shù)是由一組領(lǐng)先于一致指數(shù)的先行指標(biāo)合成，用于對經(jīng)濟(jì)未來的走勢進(jìn)行預(yù)測；滯后指數(shù)是由落后于一致指數(shù)的滯后指標(biāo)合成得到，它主要用于對經(jīng)濟(jì)循環(huán)的峰與谷的一種確認(rèn)；預(yù)警指數(shù)是把經(jīng)濟(jì)運行的狀態(tài)分為5個級別，“紅燈”表示經(jīng)濟(jì)過熱，“黃燈”表示經(jīng)濟(jì)偏熱，“綠燈”表示經(jīng)濟(jì)運行正常，“淺藍(lán)燈”表示經(jīng)濟(jì)偏冷，“藍(lán)燈”表示經(jīng)濟(jì)過熱。
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| 來源： 中國發(fā)展門戶網(wǎng) |
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